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Undercounting the Homeless

Coalition for the Homeless has released a report challenging the Bloomberg Administration's claims that street homelessness in Manhattan declined between 2003 and 2004. The report includes a detailed analysis of the flawed methodology of the City's recent estimates of street homelessness, which have resulted in dramatic undercounts of the number of homeless New Yorkers sleeping rough on city streets.

Undercounting the Homeless: Introduction and Summary

The Bloomberg Administration has released a statistical estimate of New York City’s street homeless population that dramatically undercounts the street homeless population. Indeed, the Bloomberg Administration actually claims that the number of homeless New Yorkers sleeping outdoors in Manhattan declined between 2003 and 2004, despite abundant evidence – including City outreach and shelter data and reports from emergency food programs – that street homelessness is on the rise. Bloomberg Administration officials have refused to release the raw data from the two surveys, in effect prohibiting independent researchers from assessing the reliability of the Bloomberg Administration's claims and its survey methodology.

Last month the New York City Department of Homeless Services issued a report claiming that, on February 24th of this year, there were only 2,694 homeless people estimated to be sleeping outdoors in Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Staten Island. This figure included an estimated 1,482 people sleeping on Manhattan streets. Last year, the City claimed that, on February 25, 2003, there were 1,560 homeless New Yorkers sleeping on Manhattan streets. Thus, the City claimed that the number of homeless people sleeping on the streets in Manhattan decreased by 5 percent over the last year.

This claim is contradicted by a wealth of other public data and by reports from outreach teams, emergency food providers, shelters serving homeless single individuals.

  • Homeless outreach teams: City data, collected from outreach teams contracted by the Department of Homeless Services, actually reported an average 6.9 percent increase in the number of street homeless individuals contacted during the months preceding the survey.

  • Emergency food programs: Emergency food providers, including some of the largest soup kitchens in Manhattan, reported that they served more homeless individuals over the past year – a recent study found that two-thirds of emergency food programs reported that more homeless people were seeking their help during the past year.

  • Shelters for homeless single adults: In addition, the number of homeless single adults sleeping in municipal shelters – which historically correlates strongly with changes in the street homeless population – rose by 7.1 percent between the two nights of the surveys.

  • Additional public data: Finally, the Department of Homeless Services’ “statistical estimate” flew in the face of other public data, including Census Bureau studies, indicating much higher levels of street homelessness in New York City.

Simply put, the results of the City’s survey dramatically undercount the street homeless population in New York and paint a distorted portrait of street homelessness. Moreover, they threaten to mislead the public about the scale of the problem and even threaten to reduce vital funding and services for street homeless New Yorkers. This briefing paper discusses the recent surveys in the context of historical undercounts of street homelessness. The paper describes:

  • City outreach and shelter data, as well as reports from emergency food providers, that contradict the Bloomberg Administration’s claim that street homelessness in Manhattan declined over the past year;

  • Methodological flaws in the recent Department of Homeless Services survey that resulted in an undercount, including the faulty survey design and execution;

  • Additional data that call into question the City’s flawed estimate, including comparisons with Census Bureau data and additional reports from homeless outreach teams;

  • Historical attempts to “count” the street homeless population in New York City and elsewhere, and the flawed results of those attempts;

  • How the recent undercount threatens to mislead the public and reduce funding and services for homeless New Yorkers; and

  • Better ways to measure street homelessness than the City’s recent “point-in-time” estimate, including enhance use of management information systems.

Simply put, the lesson of more than two decades of attempts to “count” the street homeless population – particularly in large cities like New York – is that there is no “right number.” The mobility and characteristics of the street homeless population and the complexity and vastness of New York City’s terrain make it impossible to arrive at a “point-in-time” count of street homelessness. However, there are effective ways to measure trends in the street homeless population that ought to be embraced by policymakers.

Finally, the briefing paper calls on the Bloomberg Administration to release the raw data gathered during the surveys to allow independent analysis and assessment of the City’s estimate, and outlines a genuine, proven plan to reduce street homelessness in New York City.

Download the complete report: Undercounting the Homeless (pdf)